Pakistan expects rooftop solar generation to surpass grid demand next year

Pakistan’s rooftop solar generation will for the first time exceed power demand on the country’s electrical grid during daytime hours in some major industrial regions next year, a senior government official told Reuters.

The outlook reflects a record boom in the country’s solar panel installations in recent years that has delivered lower emissions and reduced power bills for some, but also disrupted the finances of debt-laden utilities due to a protracted decline in demand for grid-based electricity.

“Pakistan will experience negative grid-linked demand during certain daytime hours because behind-the-meter solar is offsetting grid consumption completely,” Aisha Moriani, secretary of Pakistan’s climate change ministry told Reuters on the sidelines of the COP30 climate conference in Brazil

While regions in Europe and Australia sometimes experience negative electricity prices due to solar oversupply and low demand, Pakistan would be among the first major emerging markets where rooftop generation could exceed grid-linked demand in major areas entirely for lengthy periods.

“Negative demand” is likely in the northwestern city of Lahore, which has some of the country’s highest solar penetration, followed by Faisalabad and Sialkot, where industrial areas are driving solar adoption, she said.

Power cuts and tariff hikes have pushed Pakistan’s 250 million people to accelerate solar adoption and made it the world’s third-largest panel importer, with solar’s share in generation exceeding its neighbour China.

The south Asian nation will see more frequent negative-demand events, especially during bright summer afternoons, industrial holidays and moderate temperature days with high solar output, said Moriani, Pakistan’s lead negotiator at COP30.

“Pakistan’s challenge is not whether renewable energy will grow, it is how fast the grid, regulation, and market design can evolve to keep pace,” she said.

The south Asian nation is planning to introduce new tariffs for large solar users, as well as changes to fee structures to ensure businesses with panels share equally in the costs of grid upkeep, she said.

Pakistan’s grid-linked power demand is expected to grow 3-4% this year, slower than historical averages. Next year, consumption is expected to rise more steeply but could be impacted more by higher solar use, Moriani said.

The surge in solar use has also pushed Pakistan to renegotiate its LNG contracts with top supplier Qatar and cancel cargoes supplied by Italy’s Eni, Moriani said.

Pakistan is looking for lower prices, flexible delivery schedules and potentially fewer cargoes, she said.

While there were no formal negotiations with Qatar at COP30, the event provided “diplomatic space for engagement with energy ministers and commercial representatives,” she said.

“The key aim is to align Pakistan’s gas import strategy with fiscal space, demand outlook, and seasonal patterns. Pakistan seeks stability and affordability, not expansion of LNG dependency.”