Commodity prices fall after Trump elected US President

SINGAPORE/LONDON: Commodities from oil and gas to metals and grains dropped on Wednesday as the dollar rallied and victory for Republican Donald Trump in the US presidential election stoked concerns about tariffs and economic growth.

Trump recaptured the White House by securing more than the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the presidency, following a campaign of dark rhetoric that deepened the polarization in the country.

Oil prices fell by more than 1% , on pressure from the U.S. dollar rally, which was set for its biggest one-day rise since March 2023 against major peers.
Investors believe Trump’s presidency will bolster the dollar as interest rates may need to remain high to combat inflation that would stem from new tariffs.

A stronger US Dollar (USD) makes greenback-denominated commodities such as oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Precious metals also fell, with gold sliding to a near three-week low, while copper lost more than 2%, making it the worst performer of the base metals complex.

“Gold will be torn between the risk of rising inflation, potentially slowing the pace of U.S. rate cuts, as tariffs are rolled out and continued demand for safe haven assets,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said.

Commodity prices started to fall overnight as traders started to price in the likelihood of a Trump win.

“This scenario is expected to bring about the promised tariffs on imported goods, particularly targeting China, potentially triggering a new wave of trade tensions and economic disruptions,” Hansen added.

However, Trump could renew sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, removing oil barrels from the market, which would be bullish, said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. Iran exports about 1.3 million barrels per day.

Benchmark European gas prices also fell by nearly 3% amid concerns about gas supplies and Trump’s stance on the Middle East conflict and Russia-Ukraine war.

China’s industrial metals and steel industries could face headwinds as Trump has pledged to impose blanket 60% tariffs on Chinese goods to boost U.S. manufacturing.

“China’s steel prices will undertake more downward pressure if Trump wins the election, and domestic steelmakers may face even more severe losses,” said Ge Xin, deputy director at Lange Steel Research Centre.

“This is because Trump will be more aggressive in terms of measures against China.”
The copper market was pricing in the possible roll-back of U.S. electrification initiatives, including subsidies for electric vehicles, which would dampen demand.

US Elections 2024- Latest Updates

Agricultural commodities were also hit, with soybean futures in particular trading lower. Wheat and corn were seen as less exposed to renewed trade tensions with China.

A stronger dollar makes U.S. grain more expensive overseas, while tariffs proposed by Trump could disrupt U.S. agricultural trade, with soybeans particularly reliant on sales to leading importer China.

There are also fears that China could respond with retaliatory measures, potentially reducing U.S. exports of key crops and creating downward pressure on prices.

Shares in European clean energy companies also fell as Trump has vowed to scrap offshore wind projects through an executive order on his first day in office.