In rural Wisconsin, frustrations over Trump ag policies heat up House race

When she’s not trekking across Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District to meet voters, Democratic congressional challenger Rebecca Cooke is still on her feet, waiting tables at two restaurants around Eau Claire, a city of about 73,000 people surrounded by rolling farmland.

“When you’re serving ​people at a restaurant, it’s almost like you’re knocking on doors every time you’re waiting a table,” said Cooke, who is trying to flip one of a shrinking number of highly competitive seats in the U.S. House of ‌Representatives in November’s midterm elections that could end Republican control of Congress.

Cooke doesn’t get into deep political conversations as she takes orders, she said, but customers do sometimes recognize her and tell her about issues they care about, occasionally writing notes of support on receipts. She keeps the best ones in a folder on her phone.

Each of those tableside moments could be a difference-maker for Cooke, 38, the Democratic frontrunner in Tuesday’s primary. If victorious, she will head to a rematch with Republican incumbent Derrick Van Orden, who was elected in 2022, in what’s expected to be a tight race that could turn on how ​President Donald Trump’s policies have affected rural voters.

Trump has already traveled to Wisconsin this summer to stump for Van Orden, 56, in an appearance framed by tractors and bales of hay.

Van Orden was elected in 2022 following the retirement of moderate ​Democrat Ron Kind. However, with the reverberations of Trump’s policies — the U.S. war with Iran, trade battles with China, and steep cuts to healthcare and food aid — Democrats see an opportunity for Cooke, ⁠a dairy farmer’s daughter who says Trump has left rural voters behind, to recapture the rightward-trending district.

A COMPETITIVE RURAL AREA

With fewer voters splitting tickets and gerrymandering reshaping congressional maps, “any district that is mathematically competitive is going to get a significant amount of attention,” said Anthony ​Chergosky, political science professor at the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse. The district’s last three elections were decided by between 3 and 4 percentage points, including Van Orden’s win over Cooke in 2024.

The district is split between farmland and larger towns that are home to universities and ​corporations like home improvement store chain Menards. Former President Barack Obama won the district in his two presidential races, but the district voted for Trump in each of his elections.

Van Orden, a retired Navy SEAL and occasional actor, has a MAGA-friendly public image, previously attending the January 6, 2021 pro-Trump rally that later ended in rioters storming the Capitol.

He has been a staunch supporter of White House policies including 2025 tax-cut legislation that sharply cut Medicaid, the SNAP food assistance program and renewable energy incentives. Those cuts have hit rural areas, which have high rates of poverty and food insecurity, hard.

Van Orden also voted ​against rescinding some of Trump’s controversial tariffs. The administration’s tariff policies have stalled purchases of U.S. agricultural products, including by China, a major consumer of goods such as soybeans, which are widely grown in the district.

And he is a vocal backer of Trump’s war with ​Iran, which has driven up the cost of fuel and fertilizer.

Before Trump spoke at a June rally in Chippewa Falls, Van Orden told the crowd, “We’re going to make sure that our farmers don’t have to wring their hands at night because they’re worried about paying the bills.”

Van Orden, ‌in an interview with ⁠Reuters, acknowledged that the war had driven up costs, but he still sees the cause as just.

“If we can hold these people accountable for killing my friends and make sure they don’t have the ability to hold the world economically hostage, this short-term trouble that we have right now, I think is going to be worth it in the long run,” he said, referring to Iran’s government.

He cited the House passage of legislation, which is not yet law, that allows year-round sales of higher-ethanol gasoline, as a signal that he is trying to reduce fuel costs.

FARM AND FUEL CRISIS

From his farm in Ferryville not far from the Mississippi River, Dylan Bruce, 33, a produce and seed farmer, said the region is in a fuel and farm crisis.

An April American Farm Bureau survey showed 70% of its members were ​unable to afford fertilizer. As of Sunday, diesel averaged $5.05 a gallon ​in Wisconsin, down from a May peak of $5.87, but still ⁠far more than the $3.51 average a year ago, according to American Automobile Association data.

Bruce said his business lost a steady source of income after the Trump administration cancelled food purchasing assistance programs that enabled state and tribal governments to purchase locally farmed food and distribute it to food banks. He hopes a Democrat can win the seat.

Dean Rosenbrook, a corn and soybean farmer at Trump’s Chippewa Falls rally, ​said he would likely vote for Van Orden, but wanted to see the Iran war end.

Fuel and fertilizer prices are “killing us,” he said.

Trump remains more popular with rural voters than he ​is nationally, with an approval rating with ⁠those Americans at 51% as of a July 29 to August 3 Reuters/Ipsos poll. That’s still down from 60% in February 2025.

That falloff is why some of Wisconsin’s political strategists believe Van Orden faces a tougher re-election battle.

Cooke’s message has not changed since her previous unsuccessful runs, said Democratic political strategist Joe Zepecki. “The political environment is the thing that is most different.”

Unlike the progressives who have won competitive Democratic primaries in recent months, Cooke describes herself as a moderate Democrat ideal for the district because of her background.

She recalls her family selling its cows when she was in high school, unable to ⁠compete with larger ​dairies.

“The ripple effect is really felt in a rural economy,” she said. “When you see so many farms go under, so many bankruptcies happen, it’s tough to just ​sit by the sidelines.”

Cooke moved to Minnesota for college, and worked on political campaigns and nonprofits before moving back to the area in 2014. Van Orden has attacked her for her previous campaign work, accusing her of “cosplaying” as a waitress.

She says her prior campaign work informs her advocacy for rural areas. She wants to expand ​federal support for rural hospitals so they stay open, slow the trend of farm consolidation, and strengthen labor unions in Wisconsin.

“Things could be different if we had the right change-makers in place,” she said.