The Indian rupee (INR) ended little changed after a rangebound Tuesday, ahead of crucial US consumer inflation data that will help investors gauge the timing of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
The Indian rupee closed at 82.7675 against 82.7575 in the previous session. It traded in a narrow 82.7250 to 82.7725 band for the session.
The Indian currency has been a beneficiary of persistent foreign inflows in the country’s debt and equity markets but dollar purchases from importers and possible intervention by the central bank have limited gains, traders said.
“Technically, the rupee is expected to consolidate between 82.52 to 83.05 with a positive bias,” Dilip Parmar, a foreign exchange research analyst at HDFC Securities, said.
While foreign inflows are expected to remain favourable for rupee bulls, any risk-averse sentiment and likely dollar purchases by the central bank will limit the rupee’s rise, he said.
Data due on Tuesday is expected to show U.S. headline inflation rose by 0.4% on-month while core increased by 0.3% in February.
The data will help assess whether January’s higher reading was just a blip or that price gains are proving more persistent.
If core inflation is on expected lines, there may not be a big market impact but “it could definitely set the tone for a more defensive stance on FX – i.e., a gradual rotation back to the dollar – ahead of next week’s Fed meeting,” ING Bank said in a note.
Ahead of the data, investors are pricing in total Fed rate cuts of 90 basis points in 2024.
Asian currencies were mostly lower ahead of the data while dollar-rupee forward premiums fell.
Meanwhile, India’s retail inflation, also due on Tuesday, is forecast to have inched down to a four-month low of 5.02% in February, according to a Reuters poll.
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