Gold prices jumped 1% to near one-week highs on Thursday, on the back of a weaker US dollar and lower yields after signs of labour market losing steam led investors to expect a super-sized rate cut from the Federal Reserve this month.
Spot gold was up 0.8% at $2,514.79 per ounce by 1345 GMT, having climbed to its highest since Aug. 30 earlier. U.S. gold futures rose 0.8% to $2,545.60.
U.S. private employers hired the fewest number of workers in 3-1/2-years in August, potentially hinting at a sharp labour market slowdown. This follows data on Wednesday showing a sharp decline in U.S. job openings in July.
After ADP data, there was a gold spike and it really shows “the labour market is in dire state and there is a lot of concern about it,” said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures.
“The initial claims data didn’t really help either as far as painting a rosy picture for the employment.”
Traders currently see a 55% chance of a 25 basis-point (bp) reduction by the U.S central bank this month and a 45% chance of a 50-bp cut, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
The Fed needs to cut interest rates to keep the labour market healthy, but it is now down to incoming economic data to determine by how much, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Wednesday.
Attention turns to the upcoming non-farm payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.
“If the August unemployment rate matches July’s 4.3%, its highest since 2021, that should send gold back towards its record high as markets ramp up bets for a jumbo-sized rate cut,” said Han Tan, chief market analyst at Exinity Group.
“We should see gold bulls laying claim to the $2,700 handle by end-2024, provided the Fed can deliver the market-expected 100-bps in rate cuts by Christmas”. Elsewhere, spot silver gained 2.2% to $28.90, platinum climbed 3.5% to $934.25 and palladium rose 2.03% to $953.
